The Carmel Group

The 2-Buck-Chuck Test

January 22, 2008

Filed under:

In another take on the pending merger between XM and Sirius, Jimmy Schaeffler of the Carmel Group offers this commentary, titled â€œThe 2-Buck Chuck Test.â€

Since the advent and mass deployment of flat-panel plasma and LCD monitors just a few years ago, the new application and technology called digital signage has developed great new legs. Estimates of these types of screens being used for the many forms of digital signage in the U.S. as of early 2008 are at almost 500,000. Industry researcher, The Carmel Group, estimates revenues of more than $2.5 billion by year-end 2010. Yet, there is a good chance that the real stride in those legs will develop only if North Americaâ€™s broadcasters join the small band of local operators that are today making digital signage a part of their overall business model. These would include broadcasters such as Capitol Broadcastingâ€™s Jim Goodmon, whose company, Microspace, began focusing on digital signage in 1994, in the form of digital signage kiosks.

Getting a “Free” Bird

July 22, 2007

Filed under: Blog, Satellite, Press

In the more than three years since April 2004, when Rupert Murdoch shut down the more than two mil. pirates attacking his newly-acquired DirecTV, the DirecTV system has remained â€œhack freeâ€ (which is another way of saying no one has yet found a way to break into the system that secures the DirecTV boxes and signals). Yet, like water that flows into and eventually around a dam, that most-effective 2Q 2004 DirecTV shut down was the bane of rival EchoStar, because it meant pirate resources were consequently shifted from DirecTV to the now more vulnerable DISH Network. Since 2004, there has been a large expansion in the number of pirates that target the Digital Broadcast Video (DVB) set-top box standard that supports the DISH Network programming. These pirates use the so-called Free-To-Air (FTA) set-top boxes to view, for free, subscription TV services for which the overwhelming majority of normal, legal DISH Network subscribers pay monthly. FTA pirates tapping into the 13 mil. legal subscriber DISH Network, as well as into the 2.3 mil. legal subscriber Bell ExpressVu (BEV) system (which is the Canadian satellite operator that uses the conditional access system supplied by the EchoStar and Nagra joint venture company, called NagraStar), have now distributed their illegal services and products to an estimated two million illegal TV Households (TVHHs) in the U.S. and Canada, at an average hardware unit price of around $200, accounting for almost $350 mil. in total cumulative revenues. (See chart, below). The top three distributors of FTA devices for the EchoStar and BEV systems are, in order, Sun Valley, CA-based PanSat; South San Francisco, CA-based Coolsat; and Mississauga, ON, Canada-based Fortec. Among just these top three FTA providers, they have already distributed an estimated 1.385 mil. units, representing sales of well over $200 mil. in estimated cumulative revenues since 2004. The Carmel Group believes that the top eight FTA manufacturer/distributors listed in the chart below account for three-quarters of the FTA business in North America. In short, FTA today in North America is big business. Take the NFL Sunday Ticket that is carried on BEV in Canada, and the level of hacking is even more disturbing.

Reject their request

February 23, 2007

Filed under: Satellite

When the Federal Communications Commission approved the creation of satellite radio in 1997, it had an option: Provide an exclusive license to one company, or authorize competing licenses that ensured consumer choice and lower marketplace prices. It wisely opted for the latter, saying: "One licensee will not be permitted to acquire control of the other remaining satellite licensee. This prohibition on transfer of control will help assure continuing competition."

"Itâ€™s taken satellite more than 13 years to attain 27 per cent of the U.S. multichannel video market"
Perhaps the best measurement of the true short- to midterm prospects for Telco-delivered IPTV is how quickly it will gain significant share of the multichannel video (MCV) market. Influencers in the U.S. include the power of a potentially merged EchoStar/DIRECTV direct broadcast satellite (DBS) service provider, ease of content acquisition and government regulation. After that? It depends on how well the Telcos do their IPTV job.

Telecom competition

July 02, 2006

Filed under: Cable, Satellite, Advanced Services

Editor -- Telecom companies will compete head-to-head with cable and satellite companies in California. Unfortunately, in his recent opinion piece in your paper, the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights' Jamie Court quotes me to support his view that video competition will not lead to lower consumer prices ("Bad deal for cable customers," Insight, June 26). I did not say that. To make his point that "industry analysts say prices will be high," Court quotes me as saying "none of these players wants to enter into a price war." That's true. No business likes a price war.

Sales of satellite hardware and software services and products have for over a decade been a strong staple of U.S. consumer electronics businesses. It is so strong, in fact, that just the DirecTV side of retail U.S. set-top box (STB) sales represents an estimated $2 bil. in annual income as of the last measurement in 2004, according to the Consumer Electronics Assn.

TiVo Makes Me (and My Family) Smarter

January 05, 2006

Filed under: Cable, Satellite

Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) make me and my family smarter. They do this by allowing us to maximize the value of our TV and video experience. Yet, as more and more Americans discover this unique, new â€œsmartâ€ box, a lack of proper consumer education and traditional market economics suggest the creation of a new, â€œDVR Digital Divide.â€ Put shortly, for a service this valuable, it should not allow for those with the wherewithal to get smarter and yet those without the means to be left behind.

DVR vs VOD From Riot to Reckoning

January 05, 2005

Filed under: Cable, Satellite

Beginning with DVRs, key attributes today include 1) intense consumer loyalty and attraction, 2) clear consumer choice, control and customization, 3) the ability to pause, record and rewind live (and future) TV (including multipart series), and 4) the availability of lifetime subscriptions.

Satellite Radio: It Will Succeed. Period.

November 15, 2002

Filed under: Satellite, Wireless, Advanced Services

The last quote above, i.e., â€œHow could you question whether people would adapt to and want to make this part of their lives? It just works so damned well,â€ best reflects the future for the U.S. satellite radio, and it does so for the following reasons.

Will New Set-Top Boxes Make Dealers’ Lives Heaven Or Hell?

November 06, 2000

Filed under: Cable, Satellite, Advanced Services

Articles

The Future of DVRs: Remote Storage

EchoStar vs. News Corp: Rupert’s Wile Costs Charlie 800,000 DNS Subscribers

Capturing Digital Signage: Giving Consumers Relevance

Cable and Broadcasters: Post-NAB 2010 Challenges

Big Cable: Get Ready For IPTV (05-07)