Sean Badding, vice president of satellite research firm The Carmel Group, figures the fledgling market will expand gradually from a few hundred-thousand subscribers at the end of 2000 to 6 million by the end of 2006. The big takeoff might not come until 2002 or 2003, he said. “It’s not something that’s going to be a mass-market thing,” Badding said. “They’ve got a lot of work ahead of them.” “The backing of Microsoft and Dish Network will give them the heft they need,” Badding said. “It is also critical for Starband to get into more retail stores in the U.S. to make themselves known.” Ultimately, analysts expect the Starband venture to be sold to the public in an initial public offering. That might not happen for several years, however, as the company concentrates on building subscribers. “Ideally, I think they need to reach the 1 million mark,” said Badding.

“In the long run Qualcomm is considered really the company to watch,” said Sean Batting, an analyst with Carmel Group. “They’re positioned in the industry in a very strong way.”